Market Commentary: Fall 2026 - Built to Outlast

Why Patience Still Beats Reacting to Headlines

On September 18, at the age of 96, Warren Buffett stepped down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway after 56 years in the role. His farewell letter left investors with four words, "Father Time always wins."

On its face, the line is about getting older, and Buffett said as much with a joke about his great-grandson moving faster than he does. But the lesson we take from his career is one he has repeated for decades: stick with a good investment and let it play out. Buffett spent five decades showing that patience beats attempting to be clever, and Berkshire was built to outlast any one person at the helm, Buffett included. Your portfolio is built on that same idea. 

Why Markets Feel Shaky

The timing of Buffett's exit lines up with a stretch of market turbulence that's hard to ignore. Oil prices have jumped since the war with Iran began. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to about 5.3%, its highest level since 2007. Inflation is picking up again, driven largely by the cost of gas and oil, and the Fed just raised rates, which is the reverse of what most investors expected only a few short months ago. Mortgages and car loans now cost more as a result. 

We’ve Seen This Pattern Before

None of this feels good right now. But it also looks familiar, even if the details are new. Every year brings its own version of "this time it's serious." In 2020, the market fell over 30% in a matter of weeks when COVID hit, yet still finished the year higher. In 2022, bonds had their worst year in decades, and it took until 2025 for the broad bond market to recover. 

Berkshire's own stock has fallen by roughly half on three separate occasions over the past 60 years, and each time it came back. As Buffett told shareholders after one of those drops, "Don't despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares." The names and issues change, but the pattern doesn't.

The Math Behind Patience

There's a real cost to reacting to moments similar to this one. $1,000 invested in the broad U.S. stock market on January 1, 2001, grew to $8,360 by the end of 2025. Miss just the single best week of that 25-year stretch, and the same $1,000 ends up worth $6,977 instead. Miss the best month, and it's $6,676. Miss the best six months, and it drops to $5,425, more than a third less than staying fully invested the whole time. Some of the market's biggest rebounds have arrived in the middle of its scariest stretches. The market doesn't ring a bell when it's about to turn, and by the time it feels safe to get back in, most of the recovery has already occurred. 

Diversification at Work

This is why your portfolio isn't built around this week's news. It is diversified across companies, sectors, and countries, so no single event determines your results. It holds higher-quality, shorter-term bonds so moves like the recent rate spike do less damage. It also leans toward value and small-cap companies; a tilt grounded in decades of research on elements of the market that have rewarded patience over time. 

This quarter offered a small preview. US small company stocks fell 7.2% and the broad bond index fell 3.5%, yet both still have a place in your portfolio because their long-term roles haven't changed. Bonds aim to steady the ride, stocks drive growth over time, and different pieces struggle at different times. That is fundamental to the enduring success of diversification. 

Thinking in Decades

Buffett's track record came from staying in markets long enough for good decisions to compound. In his farewell letter, he wrote that he looked for owners who "thought in decades rather than quarters." Years earlier, he put it more bluntly: "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes." That is the same bet your portfolio is making, regardless of what oil prices, rates, or inflation do next. 

If any of this is weighing on you, or if you want to talk through how current conditions affect your portfolio, please reach out to your advisor. If you feel the pull to make a change, a conversation with us is a good first step. We can look at what has changed in your goals and timeline, which is usually a better test than what has changed in the headlines.

Additionally published in North Bay Business Journal