Market Commentary: Fall 2024 - Markets in Motion

Oct 22, 2024 Willow Creek Wealth Management Posted in Market Commentary, NBBJ

Navigating Through Waves of Uncertainty

With all the benchmarks we follow currently at or near record highs – coupled with concerns over the state of US politics, interest rate uncertainty, and conflicts in the Middle East just to name a few – clients have raised some big questions. How do we, as investors, reconcile a soaring stock market with such negative world news? Will the markets continue to rise to even greater heights despite so much turmoil? Or is it obvious that some sort of market correction is imminent? Unfortunately, the answers to these questions are simply unknowable. There is good news though: as a diversified investor, your portfolio has been carefully crafted to withstand choppy conditions and adapt to whatever may be on the horizon. In an effort to ease some of the worries you might be feeling, we’ve decided to address some of these headlines along with our approach and recommendations for getting through uncertain times successfully. 

Election Year Volatility

The upcoming Presidential and Congressional elections offer stark choices and are widely seen as divisive. Regardless of the outcome, one side will likely be unhappy with the results since both parties claim that if the other wins, markets will decline, taxes will rise, and economic chaos will ensue. However, history shows that presidential elections usually have very little impact on the markets, no matter which party is in power. In fact, the US markets have roughly averaged the same returns under both Republican and Democratic leadership. 

Having said that, the lead-up to election day is sure to be dramatic, likely causing volatility as the markets react. Even so, it’s important to stay patient and remember that short-term movement is a normal part of investing. The US economy is resilient and has adapted to political challenges before, as seen during the Watergate era. As difficult as it may be, try not to let current political concerns sway your long-term investment plans.

As a diversified investor, your portfolio has been carefully crafted to adapt to whatever may be on the horizon. 

Debt and Taxes

Several legislative issues are also expected to confront Congress and the Executive Branch over the next year. These include discussions over the debt ceiling as well as the expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act at the end of 2025. You can expect lots of noise, posturing, and dire speculations as these issues are addressed. Trying to predict the outcomes of these debates, however, will not benefit you in the long run.

Interest Rate Impact

Much of the recent market volatility has been driven by speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates. The Fed’s announcement in late September indicated a gradual reduction of benchmark rates over the coming year, which is generally good news. It signals that inflation, which is now at 2.5%, is under control – allowing the Fed to start to ease its restrictive monetary policies. While this outcome had largely been anticipated by the market, predicting the Fed’s next moves reliably is nearly impossible. History is full of examples of failed attempts to “outguess the Fed.” All that aside, we do expect a period of reasonable returns for clients holding bonds as interest rates continue to come down. 

Our advice on the best course of action: keep calm, be patient, and stay focused on the long term.

Beyond the Headlines 

The issues discussed above are just a few of the known factors influencing the markets right now. There are always other elements simmering in the background, such as the potential widening of major global conflicts, the risk of recession, or the transformative possibilities of AI. Beyond these, there are also the “unknown unknowns” – the events we cannot foresee or plan for.  

Keep Calm and Have Confidence

When markets react negatively to events, it’s common for investors to feel like they should do something with their portfolios – anything that will ease the anxiety and help them feel in control again. Our advice on the best course of action: keep calm, be patient, and stay focused on the long term. We know this can be difficult amidst so many worrying headlines – but that’s why you have an advisor! It’s our job to help you stay grounded in the face of volatile markets and media noise. Our goal is to reassure our clients that a long-term mindset combined with a disciplined investment approach will create the best opportunities for success.

 

Additionally published in North Bay Business Journal

Market Update - Fall 2024

Get up to date with Portfolio Manager, Griffin Sheehy, as he provides his insights in our latest video.

Volatility might have dominated headlines this past quarter, but strong growth still emerged across major asset classes! These results are a good reminder that short-term swings are part of the normal investment cycle and why it’s so important to stay focused on your long-term goals – no matter what the headlines say.